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Analyst: Tesla losing market share to Audi, Jaguar

The analysis appears to focus on the 'luxury' EV segment, ignoring the Model 3's growth trajectory.

Tesla may be losing market share to Audi and Jaguar in the luxury EV segment, according to analyst firm AB Bernstein.

"Our analysis suggests that the deteriorating sales trajectory of the Model S and X may be primarily due to competition, particularly in Europe, from Jaguar and Audi," Bernstein senior tech analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote to clients, as quoted by CNBC.

The firm suggests Model S and X gross profits fell by 57 percent in the first half of the year, with quarterly production falling from 20,000-25,000 units to just 14,000 units.

Sacconaghi suggests the market for luxury electric vehicles with price tags above $60,000 "isn't growing much," providing an opportunity for the Audi e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace to erode Tesla's position.

The analysis appears to ignore the Model 3's stellar growth trajectory and appeal to buyers of traditional luxury vehicles. Last year, the Model 3 outsold a long list of German luxury sedans by a wide margin including the most popular offerings from Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz.

Tesla had actively encouraged early Model 3 reservation holders to buy a Model S instead. CEO Elon Musk also made a point to declare the S and X to be superior vehicles, suggesting the Model 3 may be a more powerful competitive threat to the more expensive offerings than outside rivals sold by Audi and Jaguar.

Musk's master plan started with the low-volume Roadster, which was 'necessarily' expensive and reflected the higher battery costs of the time. The sports car provided funding for medium-volume cars -- the Model S and X -- that generated additional revenue for the company's ultimate goal of launching an affordable high-volume car.

Tesla is now focused on launching the Model Y and an all-electric pickup. Together with the Model 3, the upcoming offerings will engage the vast majority of the automotive market.

As established automakers prepare to follow Tesla into lower price brackets, analysts will be closely watching to see if cars such as the Volkswagen ID.3 will make a dent in Model 3 demand.

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