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Updated: March and Q1 2019 sales: Ford, GM check in amidst pickup segment shake-up

Updated: March and Q1 2019 sales: Ford, GM check in amidst pickup segment shake-up

First-quarter numbers contain some surprises (both pleasant and unpleasant) for the domestic truck industry.

[UPDATE: Tesla and Ford results are now included.]

This will be our first sales report of 2019 to include numbers from Ford and GM, both of whom have switched to a quarterly reporting schedule.

The biggest item to note so far this morning is that the Ram pickup lineup has so far outsold the Chevrolet Silverado lineup in 2019. We saw brief hints of this shift last fall when Ram's monthly results edged ahead of Silverado's briefly. It's clear that FCA has carried that momentum over into the new year with gusto and the continued ramp-up of Silverado production has not erased Ram's progress.

Speaking of Ram, it's worth noting that the pickup alone is up so much compared to 2018 that the brand would be ahead of last year's numbers even without the entire ProMaster lineup. FCA did not include a breakdown of volume between the 1500, 1500 Classic and Heavy Duty models, but even if its numbers are fueled by the Classic, that cost-sunk variant is essentially an ATM at this point.

If the first quarter is any indication (and we have no reason to believe otherwise), Jeep's shot at a one-million-unit year may have come and gone. While Ram continues to steamroll, Jeep is now coming in seven percent under last year's numbers. In volume terms, that's only 16,000 units, and the year is young, but we're skeptical that last year's already-short performance is going to be eclipsed in 2019.

Also, Fiat.

Ford's Q1 numbers were boosted by strong performances from the soon-to-be unavailable Fiesta alongside EcoSport, Transit Connect and the new Expedition. Lincoln benefited from strong MKC, Navigator and combined Nautilus/MKX sales. The MKT also had a surprisingly good quarter (as did its Ford sibling, the Flex). F-Series sales were flat, but strong, keeping Ford comfortably in the large pickup segment lead.

Ranger checked in with more than 9,000 units sold in its first quarter on the market. We'll have to wait until the end of June to have even an inkling of how that segment is truly shaping up.

There really aren't a ton of good stories to tell on the GM front. The brightest spot is the Chevrolet Colorado, which seems to have a pretty good head of steam. Up 16 percent for the year, it's going to take some of the sting out of Silverado's sluggishness. Camaro managed to eke out a slight increase compared to Q1 of 2018, while Tahoe and Suburban both slipped.

Toyota has also checked in. Lexus has finally found some gas, though ironically from its ES sedan (There's a hybrid now; get it?). The RC coupe is also up compared to last year, though we're not entirely certain why. On the Toyota side, C-HR and 4Runner both had strong months, while RAV4 appears to have experienced a hiccup (likely thanks to residual production and inventory delays from the model change-over).

Nissan is still struggling to check a volume slide which began last year. The best news for the brand comes from Armada, which is now up nearly eight percent over 2018. Pathfinder had a decent March, and the NV vans seem to be doing well enough, but there's just not a lot of good news elsewhere in the lineup.

Honda managed a rosier March than the other volume import brands. The company saw bumps from Accord, Civic and HR-V along with a flat (but strong) performance from CR-V. Acura was well above the waterline as well, with big improvements from ILX (!?) and RDX. In any other year, Honda's overall steady-as-she-goes performance might be lackluster, but any manufacturer doing better than simply treading water has cause for celebration right now.

Volkswagen checked in with a big gain for March on a monster showing for Jetta and an almost-equally impressive month for Tiguan (now no longer getting much help from the old-model "Limited). Atlas also finished strong. See, Volkswagen? Crossovers.

Mazda is doing a whole lot of nothing, it seems, with every model down compared to a year ago. Subaru, of course, is doing everything, largely thanks to Ascent. On the Korean front, Hyundai and Kia both had solid months, with the latter bolstered significantly by a hot start from Telluride.

Leftlane's original January estimate of 32,000 Teslas sold was based on year-end delivery figures carrying over before exports began. Tesla revealed in its Q1 reporting Thursday that many Q4 deliveries were "carry-forward" cases (customers taking advantage of expiring EV credits) and, as a result, the company's production was down 31% in Q1 compared to Q4 of 2018. This also had an obvious negative impact on deliveries. We are adjusting our March and YTD estimates downward based on that revelation.

Tesla's domestic deliveries in March dropped precipitously to make room for ROW market distribution, and we are also factoring in a much larger unsold volume than Tesla has traditionally carried. Tesla has confirmed that it has more than 10,000 units currently undelivered to customers overseas, and it is rumored that an almost-equal quantity of built vehicles are in some stage of pre-delivery (some spoken for, but many more not) Stateside as well.

March, 2019

2019 YTD

*Automotive News estimate

**Placeholder (pending official Q1 delivery information)

***Excludes Mercedes-Benz Vans

†Leftlane Estimate

All figures represent direct year-to-year volume changes, not adjusted for selling days.